Razor Hail

Today is Christmas Day for Apple lovers (courtesy of “St. Jobs”).  At 10AM PDT, Steve Jobs will give the keynote at WWDC in San Francisco and we’ll almost surely see a new iPhone (iPhone HD?) along with a few other surprises.

Here’s my predictions on what we’ll see:

- new iPhone. I know, I’m going out on a limb here. However, it’s not guaranteed that the prototype we saw earlier was the final build. I think Jobs will announce the new iPhone and they will be available TODAY.

- new Mac Mini. Possibly a slim, vertical Mac Mini. If you take out the optical drive (a la MacBook Air), you’d have a very slim chassis.

- iTunes “in the cloud”. The result of Apple’s recent acquisition of music streaming service LaLa will surely be seen in iTunes.

- Safari 5. The latest version of the browser will debut.

- XCode 4. This year’s version of Apple’s developer tools.

I don’t think we’ll see a new MacBook Air (I’m guessing sometime in the fall/winter for this one). We *might* see something about a new Mac Pro. The most recent model is getting long in the tooth.

Whatever it is, I’m sure it will be VERY exciting.

I think I’m going to advertise myself as an “analyst”. Trip Chowdhry said that Microsoft’s CEO, Steve Ballmer, would have seven minutes at the upcoming WWDC to introduce Microsoft’s Visual Studio 10. And that VS10 would allow Windows devs to make iPhone apps.

Where did I put my hip-waders? Where do I even begin? First of all, there is NO way in hell that Ballmer gets stage time at Apple’s biggest event. Especially after Ballmer’s past comments about the iPhone. 

Second, let’s just say that we do live in crazy land. Is seven minutes enough to introduce something as huge as a cross-platform development tool? No. 

I’m tired of these “ANALysts” that pull “news” straight out of their ass. Perhaps it’s because it’s in the name?

I’m really convinced they’ll say anything just to get page views (as Chowdhry is saying today that Ballmer will not be at WWDC and there won’t be any Microsoft announcement). 

But, like a bad movie leaving the door open for a sequel, he concludes his contacts “insist that both Apple & Microsoft are working on development tools - probably our timing is off”.

You better duck lest the pig hits you in the head. 

AT&T is rumored to raise the ETF (early termination fee) for cell phone contracts from $175 to $325. If true, that’s nearly DOUBLE. Supposedly it’s to match Verizon (who raised their ETF to $375 last year). Hey, if Verizon can gouge people, why can’t we?

I’m guessing that a Verizon iPhone is coming by years end and this is AT&T’s way of keeping people from jumping ship.

Mind you, this ETF is only for new contracts, but with the iPhone HD/iPhone 4G/iPhone ‘10 coming out next month, there will be a lot of people re-upping their contract with AT&T (and getting a nasty surprise if they try to get out of their contract early).

Of course, AT&T said they’re dropping the ETF for non-smartphones. Their generosity knows no bounds, it seems….

A lot of talk lately is about Apple not being “open” and them “shutting out” Adobe; that Apple is not giving people a choice because they’re not supporting Flash. Apple isn’t supporting Flash because it’s some master plan to “kill Adobe”, or that Jobs is still pissed at Adobe for the late 90s, or anything ridiculous like that.

You will never see Flash on the iPhone because Apple doesn’t want to put itself in the position where it’s dependent on someone else.

Picture this scenario: Let’s say the number one App is a game based on Flash. Some time goes by and Apple releases an iPhone update that the current version of Flash is incompatible with. Most people won’t know or care that it’s actually *Flash* that is the problem. They’ll just know that “My iPhone is broke. I updated it and now <#1 game> doesn’t work anymore.”

Should Apple check in with Adobe before each iPhone OS update and wait for Adobe to upgrade their software before releasing their own? Or do they release it anyway and incur the wrath of people who are pissed that “their phone is broke from the new iPhone software”?

Apple doesn’t want to put itself in this position. By ensuring that all native apps are written using tools that Apple provides, they avoid any “dependency” issues.

Plus, Flash has horrible performance on mobile devices. Android keeps promising that Flash is “coming soon”. An “early 2009″ delivery date has been pushed to “2nd half 2010″.
Ever wonder why?

I’m not saying this out of “Apple fanboyism”. However, I realize that Apple created the iPhone and they really have the right to do as they damn well please with it.

Many people bitch & moan that Apple “should do this” & “they should do that”. If you don’t like what Apple is doing, or if their phone doesn’t have the features you need, no one is forcing you to buy it. Don’t like it? Don’t buy it. It’s that simple.

Craig Hockenberry wrote a very well thought out piece on “communal computing” and the iPad.

He makes good points about keeping your data separate and private when you’re passing around the iPad and letting people play with the device.

I know that Apple designed the iPad to be a “single-user” device (similar to the iPhone). So I don’t think that Apple is going to implement user switching (like they do on the desktop).

However, I could see them implementing a “guest” type account that would keep your user data hidden (mail, web history, etc). This would be similar to the way guest accounts work on the desktop.

With guest access, the iPad would allow access to only the apps and/or data that you don’t mind people seeing when they’re checking out the device.

Without making it overly complex, you could simply have a list of all installed apps that had a simple “yes/no” toggle that would determine if that app was shown while “guest” mode was running.

This would avoid the complexities of multiple-user accounts and keep the focus simple.

Looks like Adobe’s “Platform Evangelist”, Lee Brimelow, is a WEE bit upset about Apple’s latest SDK agreement. Specifically this part:

Applications that link to Documented APIs through an intermediary translation or compatibility layer or tool are prohibited.

Translation? Things like the upcoming Adobe’s Flash CS5 (which essentially has a ‘Flash-to-iPhone’ compiler) will NOT be allowed in the iTunes App Store.

Given that Lee’s blog is supposed to be an ‘official’ company communication “vehicle”, his last paragraph must REALLY have the suits at the “C-level” at Adobe wringing their hands today:

Now let me put aside my role as an official representative of Adobe for a moment as I would look to make it clear what is going through my mind at the moment. Go screw yourself Apple.

If Apple was on the fence about possibly allowing apps made with Flash CS5 into the app store (while banning other frameworks (Phonegap, etc)), then Lee has REALLY helped seal that decision. 

Hey, Lee, when you take your ball and go home, make sure you kick some rocks while you’re at it.